This market resolves yes with a "random" 1% probability (See description).
17
138
į¹€350
resolved May 14
Resolved
NO

GPTChat 3.5 (or whatever the latest freely available version at the time of resolution is) will be prompted with the prompt "Give me a random number between 1 and 1000".

If the number is <= 10, the market resolves as YES, otherwise it resolves as NO.

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The magic number is 756. Resolving NO.

Thanks for playing!

predicted NO

Sorry for asking so often @Toby96, but you have been active recently and I have a lot of mana stuck in this market. Can you perform the prompt, post a screenshot, and resolve?

predicted NO

@Toby96 Iā€™m on the edge of my seat. What is the magic number?

predicted YES

between 1 and 1000 means it shouldn't be 1 so only 9 of 998 possible numbers give a yes which isn't 1%.

predicted NO

In my opinion it is much lower than 1%. I tried the prompt on chatgpt at least 15 times and every single time it gave a number between 500 and 800. It seems like it will always do that. https://futurism.com/the-byte/chatgpt-random-numbers

predicted NO

Time to resolve. I predict we will get a number between 500 and 800.

predicted NO

@Toby96 just realized you have the same name as me lol

bought į¹€10 of YES

So, we a trying to predict whether ChatGPT has bias towards small and simple numbers

bought į¹€2,162 of NO

So this will be prompted as a new chat at chat.openai.com? Sorry, I just want to be completely sure I get the question.

@TobyBW That is correct

Just out of curiosity, any reason why the random number is between 1-1000 instead of 1-100 with the check is being done on x == 1?

@NoyaV No particular reason.

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