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MANIFOLD
This market resolves yes with a "random" 1% probability (See description).
17
Ṁ350Ṁ5.4k
resolved May 14
Resolved
NO

GPTChat 3.5 (or whatever the latest freely available version at the time of resolution is) will be prompted with the prompt "Give me a random number between 1 and 1000".

If the number is <= 10, the market resolves as YES, otherwise it resolves as NO.

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The magic number is 756. Resolving NO.

Thanks for playing!

predictedNO

Sorry for asking so often @Toby96, but you have been active recently and I have a lot of mana stuck in this market. Can you perform the prompt, post a screenshot, and resolve?

predictedNO

@Toby96 I’m on the edge of my seat. What is the magic number?

predictedYES

between 1 and 1000 means it shouldn't be 1 so only 9 of 998 possible numbers give a yes which isn't 1%.

predictedNO

In my opinion it is much lower than 1%. I tried the prompt on chatgpt at least 15 times and every single time it gave a number between 500 and 800. It seems like it will always do that. https://futurism.com/the-byte/chatgpt-random-numbers

predictedNO

Time to resolve. I predict we will get a number between 500 and 800.

predictedNO

@Toby96 just realized you have the same name as me lol

So, we a trying to predict whether ChatGPT has bias towards small and simple numbers

So this will be prompted as a new chat at chat.openai.com? Sorry, I just want to be completely sure I get the question.

@TobyBW That is correct

Just out of curiosity, any reason why the random number is between 1-1000 instead of 1-100 with the check is being done on x == 1?

@NoyaV No particular reason.

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