Who am I thinking of? (guessing game)
Who am I thinking of? (guessing game)
23
1.1kṀ12kresolved May 29
100%99.0%
Pollyanna Whittier
0.1%
Vriska Serket (Homestuck)
0.0%
Carol Danvers (Captain Marvel)
0.0%
Momo Ayase (Dandadan)
0.1%
Taylor Swift
0.0%
Yotsuba (Yotsuba&!)
0.0%
Sakura Haruno (Naruto)
0.0%
Orihime Inoue (Bleach)
0.0%
Lucy Heartfilia (Fairy Tail)
0.0%
Makoto Konno (The Girl Who Leapt Through Time)
0.5%Other
I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, it will be extended for one more week.
Each user can ask one yes-or-no-question in the comments every two hours, which I will try to answer in a reasonable time.
I may reject meta-questions that reveal too much (e.g. "have they already been added to this market") at my discretion.
Sorry for low liquidity, keeping it low to make it cheap to add answers.
I will not bet in this market, of course.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ916 | |
| 2 | Ṁ76 | |
| 3 | Ṁ51 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ27 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.