Will Iran strike Israel by the end of April 2024?
resolved Apr 14

A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.

(Extension of https://manifold.markets/Elliot_dev/will-iran-strike-israel-in-the-next.)

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Israel-Gaza live updates: Iran begins retaliatory attack against Israel - ABC News (go.com)

"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it has launched extensive missile and drone operations against targets in the occupied territories, according to Tasnim, the Iranian news-agency affiliated with the branch of Iran's armed forces.

A U.S. official has confirmed Israel's announcement that Iran’s retaliatory strike has begun."

I'm going to wait for official confirmation of the attacks reaching their targets, but I expect to resolve this very soon.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Right, based on the description they have to destroy something inside Israel, even if that something is an airstrip or an empty building, correct?

@Panfilo I decided to count it even if they're shot down and don't reach their targets. But I need to know that there is an actual target.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 How will you distinguish if they're being sent to real targets or just being sent to hover and be shot down as a symbolic gesture?

@Panfilo I'm not sure yet, but that seems pretty unlikely that there would be no real target.

@Lucac8a8 Thanks, that's what I was hoping to see. I found a couple other sources that confirm it as well - resolves YES.

1. A strike will count if it occurs anywhere within the borders of Israel (including the West Bank and the Golan Heights), or any Israeli embassy, or any Israeli military target.
2. If drones/missiles/planes are shot down over Israeli territory and are unable to reach their targets, that also still counts.
3. Attacks by Iranian proxies (e.g. Hezbollah) will not count.

Let me know if you have any other specific questions for me to consider.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Really bro, why does point 2 count :(

I have a pretty substantial NO position, so I'm hoping that's not how this resolves. But it seems more fair to the spirit of the question.

bought Ṁ20 NO


No action yet, but the US and Israel are clearly expecting something very soon...


"Iran launched a drone swarm toward Israel that’s expected to reach the country overnight, an Israeli official confirmed."

Made a related market about using proxies in the response if anyone's interested

bought Ṁ100 NO


Iran's state news agency says Guards have seized MSC Aries vessel 'linked to Israel'

By Reuters

April 13, 20243:49 AM PDTUpdated 20 min ago

April 13 (Reuters) - Iran's state news agency IRNA said on Saturday that its Revolutionary Guards had seized the MSC Aries vessel it said was "linked to Israel" and it was being transferred to Iran's territorial waters.

A Guards navy special forces helicopter boarded the Portuguese flagged vessel and seized it, IRNA added.

@gpt_news_headlines The link to Israel seems pretty tenuous.


"Other media in the country widely identified [the vessel] as the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship associated with London-based Zodiac Maritime.

Zodiac Maritime is part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer's Zodiac Group."

@gpt_news_headlines seems like they want to do something without facing the consequences of actually doing something serious

@SemioticRivalry Yeah, this is in line with other "low-level" provocations in the proxy war, but I wouldn't call it a direct response

This market isn't exactly the same, but I'm surprised by how large the gap is at the moment:
[Metaculus] Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Manifold

@TimothyJohnson5c16 The Metaculus question requires at least 5 people to die, which is extremely rare in Israel. Israel has extremely good air defenses and safety protocols against missiles.

Israel enticing a conflict with Iran as an internally acceptable out from Gaza?

Interesting theory, but that sounds a little strange to me. I don't think most Israelis would want to start an even larger war, would they?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I think you're right about that. But somehow I don't think Iran wants a war with Israel either. This could be just mutual posturing.

@GazDownright Makes sense. I'm no expert, but if that's the case, I suspect it's more likely that Iran would direct one of their proxies to retaliate rather than attacking directly.

Do Iranian proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon) count?

@mattyb Elliot said no for his, so I'll say no as well to be consistent.

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