Reminder that basically no market about what Trump is going to do gets a clean resolution

@TiredCliche Yeah, I knew that's a risk when I created this. This one is at least a bit more narrowly defined than the main market on what Trump will announce, though.

My case for YES:

• Trump is visiting the Middle East and not even stopping in Israel.

• His meeting includes the PA President Mahmoud Abbas: Trump's meeting with Saudi ruler said set to include leaders of PA, Lebanon, Syria | The Times of Israel.

• He's accepting a $400m luxury jet from Qatar that will likely be used as his new Air Force One: Trump administration poised to accept 'palace in the sky' as a gift for Trump from Qatar: Sources - ABC News.

• The Saudis believe that they can reach a deal: Saudi ‘optimistic’ about securing Trump backing for Palestine recognition this week - The Jewish Chronicle - The Jewish Chronicle

The proposed deal will probably look something like this: Report: Saudis will try to get Trump to back deal for Palestinian state, end to war, regional normalization | The Times of Israel

• The US recognizes Palestine

• Hamas is removed from Gaza

• Israel will be recognized by various Arab countries

I think Trump can be persuaded to accept that deal, while also not seeing it as a betrayal of Israel.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Any announcement will be conditional, and hence not relevant, as always.

Trump has done similar things in his previous terms, where he proposed plans for a Palestinian state, but nothing came out of them.

@gpt4 fair but this market isn't about if anything will come out of it. It's if Trump will announce it.

@Samaritan I guess it’s little ambiguous, will “we will recognize a Palestinian state if Hamas is removed entirely from Gaza” count or not? That would not be them saying “we currently recognize Palestine as a country.”

@LiamZ Yeah, it worries me a little that depending on the exact wording it might be tricky to tell whether it's a conditional announcement or not.

But if it seems conditional, I'll wait another week to see if the condition is satisfied.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 why would another week matter? This is for if it’s actually recognized by the end of the week, no?

@LiamZ This depends on the announcement though, not the formal recognition.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I guess my confusion is that it seems the most likely outcome if there is such an announcement at all will be that they can get US support for statehood conditional on hostages being all released, Hamas being removed, etc. which will likely take more time.

@LiamZ I don't think that would happen. The main problem with Palestinian state recognition isn't that they should get a state (nearly everyone believes that). It's on what borders.

In the past Trump has proposed a path to statehood with his own proposed borders, but nothing happened out of that. I imagine that something similar could happen here, just with the support of Gulf countries.

@gpt4 my instinct is that this is significantly a different situation now than in his first term but we’ll see.

@SemioticRivalry 1000 more at 10%?

If trump says he'll consider recognizing Palestine at some vague point in the future, that counts as long as he says it this week?

Clarifying some edge cases:

• An announcement that says, "The US will recognize Palestine" will resolve YES, regardless of whether any formal deal is signed.

• An announcement that only says, "We will begin negotiations for a Middle East peace deal" is not enough, even if Trump sounds vaguely supportive of Palestinian statehood.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 wanna bet more?

@Bayesian 1000 more at 20%, since it seems like everyone is lining up to bet against me. 🤣

@TimothyJohnson5c16 idk i'm just basing it on this https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-recognize-palestine-in-2025, not enough to buy too much at 20% tbh

@Bayesian There are a number of reports like this coming out today: Saudi ‘optimistic’ about securing Trump backing for Palestine recognition this week - The Jewish Chronicle - The Jewish Chronicle