Any public announcement in a speech or on social media will count.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on announcement content:
An announcement stating "The US will recognize Palestine" resolves YES. The signing of a formal deal is not required.
An announcement only stating "We will begin negotiations for a Middle East peace deal" resolves NO, even if accompanied by vague support for Palestinian statehood.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding potentially conditional announcements:
If an announcement seems conditional, resolution may be delayed by one week past the market close date.
The creator will evaluate if the condition was met during that additional week before resolving.
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My case for YES:
Trump is visiting the Middle East and not even stopping in Israel.
His meeting includes the PA President Mahmoud Abbas: Trump's meeting with Saudi ruler said set to include leaders of PA, Lebanon, Syria | The Times of Israel.
He's accepting a $400m luxury jet from Qatar that will likely be used as his new Air Force One: Trump administration poised to accept 'palace in the sky' as a gift for Trump from Qatar: Sources - ABC News.
The Saudis believe that they can reach a deal: Saudi ‘optimistic’ about securing Trump backing for Palestine recognition this week - The Jewish Chronicle - The Jewish Chronicle
The proposed deal will probably look something like this: Report: Saudis will try to get Trump to back deal for Palestinian state, end to war, regional normalization | The Times of Israel
The US recognizes Palestine
Hamas is removed from Gaza
Israel will be recognized by various Arab countries
I think Trump can be persuaded to accept that deal, while also not seeing it as a betrayal of Israel.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Any announcement will be conditional, and hence not relevant, as always.
Trump has done similar things in his previous terms, where he proposed plans for a Palestinian state, but nothing came out of them.
@gpt4 fair but this market isn't about if anything will come out of it. It's if Trump will announce it.
@Samaritan I guess it’s little ambiguous, will “we will recognize a Palestinian state if Hamas is removed entirely from Gaza” count or not? That would not be them saying “we currently recognize Palestine as a country.”
@LiamZ Yeah, it worries me a little that depending on the exact wording it might be tricky to tell whether it's a conditional announcement or not.
But if it seems conditional, I'll wait another week to see if the condition is satisfied.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 why would another week matter? This is for if it’s actually recognized by the end of the week, no?
Clarifying some edge cases:
An announcement that says, "The US will recognize Palestine" will resolve YES, regardless of whether any formal deal is signed.
An announcement that only says, "We will begin negotiations for a Middle East peace deal" is not enough, even if Trump sounds vaguely supportive of Palestinian statehood.
@Bayesian 1000 more at 20%, since it seems like everyone is lining up to bet against me. 🤣
@TimothyJohnson5c16 idk i'm just basing it on this https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-recognize-palestine-in-2025, not enough to buy too much at 20% tbh
@Bayesian There are a number of reports like this coming out today: Saudi ‘optimistic’ about securing Trump backing for Palestine recognition this week - The Jewish Chronicle - The Jewish Chronicle