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MANIFOLD
Will there be price controls in the US in 2022?
21
Ṁ207Ṁ12k
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

If say this law passes: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7688/text Or some otherway. #Politics Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2023-01-05 11:59 pm

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predictedYES

US Congress specifies the price of rail labor:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/us/politics/senate-rail-strike.html

predictedNO

@MartinRandall Ok, that looks, like it might count, lets see

there are a ton of price controls in the US. what about rent control? underspecified market

predictedYES

The G7 Russian oil price cap is applied by the US.

predictedYES

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1141

predictedYES

@MartinRandall But it only applies to russian oil. Isn't that more like an embargo?

predictedYES

@TimP price controls often apply based on things like country of origin, that's not particularly novel.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall But that's not what real price controls are about. Price controls - Wikipedia

predictedYES

@TimP

Price controls are restrictions set in place and enforced by governments, on the prices that can be charged for goods and services in a market.

Restrictions, check. By governments, check. On prices, check. For goods, check. In a market, check.

@MartinRandall But not for some category of goods in general

predictedNO

@TimP That is what it usually means

predictedYES

@TimP where does the Wikipedia article you cite say that?

Inflation Reduction Act included price controls on medicine.

predictedYES

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/12/price-controls-in-inflation-reduction-act-will-dri/

predictedYES

@MartinRandall Hm, here it sounds like it only applys to drugs bought by medicare:
(and doesn't apply this year anyway)
Inflation Reduction Act Drug Pricing Provisions Aren’t At All Like Price Controls In Europe (forbes.com)

Price controls are widespread throughout the US economy, at federal and state level. But the market creator seems to really want to resolve this NO anyway, so I'm going to cut my losses.
predictedYES
Sorry for all the confusion. The intention was whether, there would be price controls as reaction to the current inflation/economic crisis. Not sure how to handle that one, seems to only be local.
I'll look into that
predictedYES
Here is a price control on baby formula: https://reason.com/2022/05/23/eric-adams-emergency-price-controls-on-baby-formula-will-make-the-citys-shortage-worse/ It was introduced May 21st, and was not in place before 2022, so this market should resolve Yes, according to currently stated resolution criteria.
Thanks for the comments guys!
Hm, not sure, Jack are you refering to price gouging laws? I think I wouldn't count laws that were in place before 2022? Especially at state level, unless maybe if they get enforced much more? Pretty sure I won't count preexisting rent control (or rent control on state/local level). Hm, not sure how to handle ratemaking. Maybe depends how much the prices diverge from market prices? Say if there are widespread shortages, or the providers were large working at a loss? I thing if the federal government would get involved that would probably count?
predictedNO
@TimP I was thinking of the same sorts of price controls the other comments mentioned - rent and electricity are the biggest examples that come to mind.
@TimP These are tricky questions for sure. Further complicating matters is that perhaps there's a meaningful difference between price controls *already being authorized by law but not utilized by regulators* and price controls *being used by regulators to actually affect prices*. For example, Pennsylvania's Medical Marijuana Act currently allows Pennsylvania's Dept of the Health to cap prices on medical marijuana if the prices become "unreasonable or excessive," but the Dept of Health has never actually *used* that power since the law's inception. Here's the statute: https://govt.westlaw.com/pac/Document/N14CB11B0117411E69477C8BD80F9BB55?viewType=FullText&originationContext=documenttoc&transitionType=CategoryPageItem&contextData=(sc.Default)
predictedYES
@TimP Okay, so I understand that you intend to resolve this based on new price controls, introduced since the market opened. You might want to update the description to make that clear. Would you count new rent control, introduced since the market was opened? Would you count new wage laws that set a minimum or maximum price for labor? Would you count new prices set under existing laws? Also, I don't understand your position on ratemaking price controls for utilities. For example, I read that California is at risk of electricity shortages this summer, and its electricity market does have price control. Would that resolve this market yes, if there are new "widespread shortages"? Generally I think shortages are a possible consequence of price control, not a definition of price controls. It's easy to have price controls without shortages.
predictedYES
@TimP Sorry, I wrote "introduced since the market opened" but your wrote to exclude laws from "before 2022", which isn't quite the same.

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