Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2025 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!)

Similar to this market: Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022? | Manifold Markets
But inflation adjusted, and one year shorter.

According to Levels.fyi's 2022 end of year pay report, real salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing steadily from 2021 through the end of 2022. Will this trend buckle by 2025 or hold steady?

May resolve N/A if they do not publish such a report.

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TimP avatar
Tim Pis predicting NO at 60%

Why is this one so different from the original? If it's because of the timing?

Let's make a market to check that:

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentinebought Ṁ20 of NO

70% seems way too high

ValentinGolev avatar
Valentin Golevbought Ṁ10 of NO

as a possibility: the salaries will be much lower because they’ll be hiring more internationally, but in the USA they’ll be high, just with much less programmers actually employed in the country. Levels.fyi will continue tracking only the first-world salaries

TimP avatar
Tim Pbought Ṁ35 of NO

@DeanValentine Thank you