The DA gained strong support in the early 2000’s, but in 2019, its support slid for the first time in democratic era. The party is now under new leadership of John Steenhuisen, and has tacked rightwards. After a disappointing showing in the 2021 local government elections, 2024 promises to be a landmark election for the DA. If the party cannot grow despite a weak economy, widespread load shedding, and a weaker ANC, fundamental questions about the party’s strategy and direction will be high on the agenda. On the other hand, if it can show some resilience, as it has in recent by-elections, it will be able to claim leadership of the Moonshot pact.
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This looks like it will resolve "yes" with 21.81% of the national vote ref. https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/
Taking "yes" as meaning "more than 20.x%" in the 2024 General Election, I tend to bet yes because:
The DA has historically been able to rally against Jacob Zuma (https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-04-09-jzs-electoral-court-victory-makes-final-weeks-of-sas-elections-2024-alive-with-possibilities/)
The latest SRF poll shows the DA at ~25% (https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/political-parties/new-poll-shows-20-drop-in-anc-support-just-six-weeks-before-crucial-elections-20240410)