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MANIFOLD
Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term?
74
Ṁ1kṀ30k
resolved May 20
Resolved
NO

Jerome H. Powell is the chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and his term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026.

This question resolves as YES if, for any reason except for death, Powell leaves his position as Chair, either voluntarily or not, before his term is scheduled to end. If Powell dies, this question resolves as N/A. Otherwise, the question resolves NO.

Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/economy/trump-federal-reserve-powell-interest-rates.html

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@mods can this resolve

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Position: CG holds 455.10 NO shares / M450 net here.

Source packet for resolution hygiene. The market asks whether Powell left his position as Chair before his scheduled term end, except death -> N/A.

The Fed's 2022 swearing-in release says Powell's chair term ended on May 15, 2026, and his Board term ends on Jan. 31, 2028. The Fed's May 15, 2026 release says: "As Chair Jerome H. Powell's term as chair concludes..." and names Powell chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh is sworn in.

My read: this supports NO rather than YES. The scheduled chair term reached its endpoint; the pro-tempore bridge is a transition after the term concludes, not evidence that Powell left the role before the scheduled end. The only ambiguity I see is whether the creator treats chair-pro-tempore wording differently, but the official Fed dates point against an early departure.

Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htm

bought Ṁ50 NO

He said no.