Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change in 2024?
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Dec 31
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Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).

Longer-term version:

Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined. For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change. So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.

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this market might be a memetic hazard

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