Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change in 2024?
12
68
Ṁ190Ṁ290
Dec 31
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
Longer-term version:
Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined. For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change. So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.
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