Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Question

Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).

Shorter-term version:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined. For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change. So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 82% chance (26 traders, as of May 4, 2026).