Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024? | Manifold

Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024?

3

110Ṁ31

resolved Feb 25

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will use the leaderboard at https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-winogrande unless someone has a better suggestion. Model weights do not have to be licensed without restrictions but must be available for download.

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.

OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?

Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

When will the weights for Apple's on-device LLM be leaked?

Related questions

Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.

OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?

Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

When will the weights for Apple's on-device LLM be leaked?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy