
Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024?
3
Ṁ110Ṁ31resolved Feb 25
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will use the leaderboard at https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-winogrande unless someone has a better suggestion. Model weights do not have to be licensed without restrictions but must be available for download.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
When will Grok 3 weights become publicly available?
6/28/26
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
14% chance
Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
9% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
50% chance
When will Qwen-Image-2.0 weights become publicly available?
4/3/27
Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
71% chance
Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?
6% chance
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
23% chance
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?
25% chance
Sort by:
@ProjectVictory https://github.com/allenai/rainbow?tab=readme-ov-file#downloading-the-weights Seems to fulfill the criteria, I would say, and comes in at 91.3 on the leaderboard. It's actually older than the question, so i guess this was just a matter of the leaderboard getting updated -_-
People are also trading
Related questions
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
When will Grok 3 weights become publicly available?
6/28/26
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
14% chance
Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
9% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
50% chance
When will Qwen-Image-2.0 weights become publicly available?
4/3/27
Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
71% chance
Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?
6% chance
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
23% chance
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?
25% chance