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Seems overconfident. 13 Mersenne primes have been discovered since the year 2000. Only 11 of those 22 years had Mersenne prime discoveries, so I'd guess the right probability should be about 50%

@Phi Considering 2022 is 2/3 over, I would think it should be even less.

predictedNO

*Actually I see you made this comment a few months ago, but the point stands.

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