Asking to understand how the mana works. if I create a market, and 5 people other than me bet on it, I get my 50 original mana. Now, we've brought into existence a market with 5 mana (minimum) which is the true cost of creating a market. But if using 5 mana I can create a post and people walk away with fixed payouts, and there are new signup bonuses, and daily bonuses, and referrals, the supply of mana just keeps increasing.
However, if I have to buy mana, I pay 10USD to buy 1000 mana. That is pretty fixed. I could just wait for a bit for the inflation to kick in.
Resolves once someone from manifold team or otherwise gives or links an explanation of for this fixed USD-Mana conversion when mana supply is always increasing (if).
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ54 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
Whenever @acc profits off of you, that goes to Manifold. That account is also special in not showing on the leaderboard.
There used to be a M0.1 per trade fee, but it was recently removed in favor of fines for high-volume bots.
There's also very long-term markets(like "will humanity go extinct by XXXX?") that will never pay out in one case, so market spent on YES shares is effectively a gift to Manifold.
But yes, there's currently inflation. With the fixed Mana-USD charity donation program, that also means the donations have to come from either investments or charity grants negotiated off-site, and the size of those must increase if the user base * activity grows.
@Wobbles it's a gigantic domino pyramid scheme like i described, just like the real world financial system, and will collapse all at once.
You're allowed 50% margin, but there's no reserve accounting. So you loan 2% a day, then other people pay you 2% which keeps you growing. If the site ran for a few years 99% of money will be dependent on loans and then AI predictions will collapse massively creating a domino of liquidations and all the top users being wiped out, except the bot who votes no.
@Mira Loans make long-term markets practically irrelevant; 99% of your investment is returned after 228 days, so there's almost no difference between markets a year out and 1000 years out, in terms of 'gifts to Manifold'.
You can construct a inflation index based on the leaderboard. Right now the site has about 10 million dollars which has been flat for some time. If the user activity grew then mana must increase from the user bonus plus the streak bonus, which is the main source of monetary growth.
Right now the site is gaining and losing about 100k per day. 1% of mana is lost from a capital gains tax which limits the supply. The ratio between user signup, streak bonus and the tax rate is the inflation rate.
The system will eventually collapse due to massive leveraged bets on failed ai predictions.
@MarkIngraham what is this capital gains tax you mentioned? afaik the only source of drain is the 0.1 mana per bet. is it some function of loans being called on lost bets?
@Stralor Where did you read about 0.1 mana per bet? I remember there were fees early on in manifold but I was under the impression that now betting is fee-free? I would bet considerably less than I am doing right now if that is really the case.
@howtodowtle To answer my own question: https://help.manifold.markets/c123f47868514d7498e2d7ec6e3677ac
Wow, totally missed that. But that's good, makes manifold less addictive. Now I don't feel like correcting any small perceived inefficiency. 😅
@howtodowtle Unclear if this fee also applies to selling an existing position, though. My assumption is yes but it's not clear from the wording.
@howtodowtle All fees were recently removed! https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/994321335419420832/1088892236466495508