What Will Happen: Dutch Elections 2025

200Ṁ362

Dec 31

34%

VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day

28%

PVV will become the biggest party

24%

Schoof will join a party before election day

24%

Timmermans will be replaced before election day

13%

PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day

11%

VVD will pick a new party leader

10%

Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following events occurring before or on October 29, 2025:

PVV will become the biggest party: Resolves to "Yes" if the Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives during the 2025 Dutch general election. Official results will be verified through the Dutch Electoral Council's publications.
VVD will pick a new party leader: Resolves to "Yes" if the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) officially announces a new party leader before election day. Confirmation will be based on official VVD communications or reputable news sources.
PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day: Resolves to "Yes" if the alliance between the Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) officially adopts a new name prior to October 29, 2025. Verification will be through official party announcements or credible news outlets.

Background

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on October 29, 2025, following the collapse of the Schoof cabinet on June 3, 2025. (reuters.com)

PVV: The Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, became the largest party in the House of Representatives after the 2023 general election. (en.wikipedia.org)
VVD: The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy is a center-right political party in the Netherlands. (en.wikipedia.org)
PvdA/GL: The Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) formed an alliance known as GroenLinks–PvdA. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

PVV's Position: While PVV led the 2023 elections, its withdrawal from the coalition in June 2025 over asylum policy disagreements may influence its standing in the upcoming election. (reuters.com)
VVD Leadership: As of June 2025, Dilan Yeşilgöz serves as the leader of VVD. Any leadership change before the election would be significant. (en.wikipedia.org)
PvdA/GL Merger Discussions: There have been ongoing discussions about a possible merger of PvdA and GL into a single party. Members are set to vote on this decision on June 21, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)