Who am I thinking of? [Round 6; TIME SENSITIVE prize!]
6
325Ṁ1631
resolved Aug 14
100%14%
Temple Grandin
0.4%
The guy who carved Pharoah Iry Hor's name on the large vessel in his tomb
0.1%
Noel Gugliemi
0.0%
Luke Treadaway
0.1%
Elizabeth Blackburn
0.3%
Mary-Claire King
0.0%
Victoria Foe
0.1%
Jane Lubchenco
19%
Alice Alleredge
66%Other

I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. Let's see if you can guess who it is!

CURRENT PRIZE VALUE: Ṁ400

Rules:

  1. At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, the closing time will be extended for another week.

  2. Each user can ask one yes/no question in the comments every 8 hours, and I will try to answer in a timely manner. The answers I give will be limited to "yes," "no," and "unknown."

  3. If your question does not follow the parameters I've set, or if it has too much gray area/a simple "yes" or "no" would be misleading, I will reply with "rephrase" and a brief snippet on what needs to be clarified. You do not need to wait 8 hours to rephrase your question.

  4. I may refuse to answer meta questions ("has the person already been added to this market," "does the person’s name have X number of letters," etc.) at my discretion.

  5. If you have a guess for who I'm thinking of, add your answer to the market. (I will not answer point-blank questions along the lines of "is it this specific person.") You may add as many answers as you like; initial liquidity is low to facilitate addition of answers.

  6. The user who adds the correct answer will receive a prize upon resolution of the market. The prize starts at Ṁ500 and decreases by Ṁ100 each time the market closing time is extended, with a minimum prize value of Ṁ100.

I will not bet in this market.

Check out the WAITO dashboard for other ongoing and past iterations of this kind of market, including a list of the answers to my previous rounds.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ393
Sort by:

@traders Congratulations to @robert for adding the correct answer in 11 d 0 hr! The Ṁ400 prize has been sent.

The next iteration of this game is now up:

Was she in any movies?

@PeanutbutterOrang Rephrase ["movies" ambiguous].

bought Ṁ30 NO

Did she obtain her PhD from an institution located in a red state (meaning it went for Trump in each of 2016, 2020, 2024)?

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 12% order

Were they born after 1946?

Is their primary field of study within zoology or ecology?

Is their primary field of study within biochemistry, molecular biology, or genetics?

Is their primary field of study within a field of biology (e.g. biochemistry, cellular biology, anatomy, zoology, ecology etc.)?

Are they the subject of a wikipedia article?

@jcb Yes.

Are they primarily of white ethnicity?

Are they (or were they) faculty at an Ivy League institution?

@jcb No.

Have they won a Nobel Prize, Turing Award, or Fields Medal?

Have they published any academic works in or after 2020?

@jcb Yes.

@traders The person has not yet been added to the market; closing time has been extended, prize value is now Ṁ400.

Was their field of study one of the natural sciences (e.g. physics, astronomy, chemistry, biology etc.)?

@TheAllMemeingEye Rephrase ["natural sciences" ambiguous].

@TheSchwa natural sciences as in the field of study of the facts and laws of physically existing non-human-created (i.e. natural) phenomena, as opposed to social sciences/humanities (e.g. psychology, economics, history, linguistics), formal sciences (e.g. mathematics, theoretical computer science), or engineering (e.g. rocketry, software)

@TheAllMemeingEye Primarily, yes.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy