I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. Let's see if you can guess who it is!
Rules:
At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, the closing time will be extended for another week.
Each user can ask one yes/no question in the comments every 8 hours, and I will try to answer in a timely manner. The answers I give will be limited to "yes," "no," and "unknown."
If your question does not follow the parameters I've set, or if it has too much gray area/a simple "yes" or "no" would be misleading, I will reply with "rephrase." You do not have to wait 8 hours to rephrase your question.
I may refuse to answer meta questions such as "has the person already been added to this market" at my discretion.
If you have a guess for who I'm thinking of, add your answer to the market. You may add as many answers as you like; initial liquidity is low to facilitate addition of answers. The user who adds the correct answer will receive a Ṁ250 prize upon resolution of the market.
I will not bet in this market.
Inspired by:
(some of which are still ongoing, check them out!)
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of is real. This narrows the scope from the original description which stated the person could be a real person or a fictional character.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed additional characteristics of the person they are thinking of:
The person is male.
The person has a Wikipedia page.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person lives in the United States.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person has not held elected office.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of: The person is not an internet personality.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person has not worked in the software industry.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person does not consider/call themselves a rationalist.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person was a professional athlete in basketball, American football, or baseball.
Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of: The person is not considered the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) by the creator.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person was a professional basketball player.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person has not won an ESPY for Best Male Athlete.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person has won the Best NBA Player ESPY.
Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed an additional characteristic of the person they are thinking of:
The person played for a team which is currently in the NBA Western Conference.
Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of is Tim Duncan.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ625 | |
| 2 | Ṁ581 | |
| 3 | Ṁ342 | |
| 4 | Ṁ138 | |
| 5 | Ṁ126 |
People are also trading
@traders Congratulations to @robert for adding the correct answer in 47 hr 28 min! The Ṁ250 prize has been sent.
Check out the WAITO dashboard for other ongoing games, including the next round of this series which started on Monday:
@traders Since I'd like to make this a regular thing, I think it makes more sense to begin new iterations at the start of the week. As such, though this market will remain open through Thursday as per the description, I've begun the next round at the following link:
Also, check out the newly created WAITO dashboard for other ongoing and past iterations of this kind of market!
True or false, the person's first and last name combined has an odd number of letters, ignoring spaces and apostrophes?
To break the meta for a moment, by my own rules I am only allowed to respond to any inquiry with "yes," "no," "unknown," or "rephrase" at a rate of 1 question per user per 8 hours.
Future iterations of this market will class questions on characteristics of the person's name (number of letters, etc.) as meta to avoid future confusion/semantic determinations; as this is my first go at this, still working out the kinks in the format.
@TheSchwa I am not trying to ask a question. I am trying to clarify what criteria you used when answering https://manifold.markets/TheSchwa/who-am-i-thinking-of-m250-prize#g1i4bwowy5i
@robert Asking for a clarification is a question. Sometimes an ambiguously worded question is more helpful than a clear one; regardless, that's the choice.
Since he said yes in regards to my question with no request for clarification, I think it might be the case that First + Last name is odd, and first name is also odd.