What comes first, biological immortality or the technological singularity?
resolved Feb 16
Technological singularity
Biological immortality

Just a fun predictive market for those with similar interests sharing subjective notions of how to think about this. Criteria based more on riffing in comments philosophically or scientifically. If demand for serious version of market builds I will do it.

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Anyone unsatisfied with the results of this market and wishes to receive the amount of mana lost if you DM me will receive it in full!


@Noah1 I mean I enjoy my profits but uh ....what

@Abraxas Which part is confusing? This market is based on what people think will come first, not what comes first, hence the date of resolution being so early. Is that the confusion?

@ThePhilosopher Where does it say that?

@Snarflak I apologize if none of this was clear from the set date. Anyone unsatisfied with the way this was handled will receive the amount of mana they lost in full.

@ThePhilosopher Please share this for anyone you know unsatisfied with this who has been directly affected and even if they comment on here, dm is just easier, they will get their mana back

It depends on one's perspective and approach to dealing with human mortality.

you should add neither as an option. both are fantasy

I wish for a serious version of this market.

@JosefMitchell Same, what do you have in mind?

1. A testable (i.e. non-subjective) definition of "technological singularity":
"Ask two transhumanists for a definition of the singularity and you'll get three answers"

2. A firm definition and cutoff for biological immortality (for example longevity escape velocity for a given age range/generational cohort within a given wealth bracket within a given country or economic bloc)
I would suggest something like:
"L.E.V. is measured for 10th percentile age cohort (age 72 at present) for people with at least the average household income (~30500 USD) within OCED"

However any firm definition that can be objectively measured will do.

One confounder to #2 is that while the technological means may be available, and the production volume of aging therapies may be sufficient, people will not actively choose to have their aging cured (I expect this percentage to be surprisingly -to other aging research enthusiasts- large), which will produce a later date on this market than when the purely technical and engineering feat of curing aging has been accomplished.

That said, I also expect there to be a long tail of problems worked on (for centuries worth of current day equivalent research progress) after longevity escape velocity is accomplished.
That research output may be as little as years and commercialization months depending on technological factors at that future point in time

bought Ṁ3 of Technological singul... YES

The revealed preferences of humans is improving machines without improving ourselves.

How are each defined?

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