Has GPT-4's weights leaked on the deep or dark web already?
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2025
9%
chance

Requires people with the resources to deep dive safely into figuring this out. I myself am going in on this journey. Gonna have this investigation till the end of the year but i wouldn't be surprised that if it was already leaked, that people haven't navigated generally in a social setting to pass on that information but that's a whole set of markets about social cohesion i'd want to track as well.

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A few questions about the market.

  1. Do the files have to be on the dark web? The weights are probably huge in file size making it completely infeasible to host something like that on TOR.

  2. If the weights were hosted on something like Mega or Pixeldrain (or any other clearnet hosting provider) and the link was circulated around on the dark web would that count as a YES or a NO resolution?

@Rucker 1. The files don’t have to be but proof that the leak is real, at minimum, with empirical evidence is ofc necessary.

  1. That would count as a YES, long as you can prove it exists out there independent of OpenAI where people are using it for their own purposes, completely unencumbered.

It's obviously impossible to ever prove 100% that it didn't leak to someone. If by the end of the year there's no proof of it having leaked before the market was created, this will resolve to NO, correct?

@t3ss Correct

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