On an April 2024 episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.
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https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS
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Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)
This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.
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Otherwise...
I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting:
advances that are sufficient to capture the general public's attention, similar to what occurred with the rollout of ChatGPT and other advanced chatbots
robot systems that use a consumer-friendly and intuitive natural language interface (Instead of complex programming, you'd say things like, "Robot, please pick up the red box and place it on the shelf.”)
robot systems that generalize to a wide range of tasks that can be performed in a wide range of environments
1,000People are also trading
It should have been Helix, but most people (understandably) aren't aware of it or it's significance.
@Haiku That demo simply isn't as impressive as it looks: it's a completely internal environment, no unexpected or messy real world obstacles, no real time interaction with an outsider, etc. The amount of progress demonstrated by Helix is approximately: ???
Getting from ??? to a ChatGPT moment in robotics is very tough with less than a year remaining. Robotics has consistently proven to on hard side of Moravec's paradox with no scaling laws or similar exponential progress trend indicating otherwise, and certainly nothing that points towards this year as being a pivotal time.
@derikk Exactly, ChatGPT had 100 million users within two months. That can only happen with a software product, not a physical product.
Jensen Huang : "The ChatGPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner"
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/6czk05rq0
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang debuts new AI platform to dominate the ‘ChatGPT moment’ in robotics"
https://fortune.com/2025/01/06/nvidia-new-ai-platform-robotics-chatgpt-moment-robots-self-driving-cars/