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MANIFOLD
Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ1.3k
Jan 1
99%
chance

Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter. Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction. Original prediction: "Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post. If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.

  • Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve early if reminded for cut and dry cases like this, rather than waiting for Yglesias' January 2027 review post.

2026 Matt Yglesias Predictions
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Is there any chance you’d resolve early, or will you definitely wait until his 2027 review post?

@Jack1 it’s not out of the question I suppose, but why does it matter? You can take a no interest loan against your unrealized gains on manifold…

@DavidFWatson Yes but it’s only 1% of the value per day, and I typically have a low balance

@Jack1 fair I suppose…

Anyway, if you remind me for very cut and dry ones like this, sure, I’ll resolve early

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