MANIFOLD
Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ83
2027
70%
chance

Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter. Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction. Original prediction: "Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post. If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.

  • Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve early if reminded for cut and dry cases like this, rather than waiting for Yglesias' January 2027 review post.

Market context
2026 Matt Yglesias Predictions
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

Is there any chance you’d resolve early, or will you definitely wait until his 2027 review post?

@Jack1 it’s not out of the question I suppose, but why does it matter? You can take a no interest loan against your unrealized gains on manifold…

@DavidFWatson Yes but it’s only 1% of the value per day, and I typically have a low balance

@Jack1 fair I suppose…

Anyway, if you remind me for very cut and dry ones like this, sure, I’ll resolve early

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy