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MANIFOLD
Will someone Any% Super Mario Odyssey in under 55 minutes by EOY 2028
3
Ṁ100Ṁ183
2028
70%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • The market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM UTC, any player completes a solo (1 Player) Any% speedrun of Super Mario Odyssey in a verified time of under 55 minutes (54:59.999 or faster), according to the official leaderboards on speedrun.com/smo.

  • Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

  • Definitions and Rules:

    • This market tracks the 1 Player (Standard) Any% category on the official leaderboard. Runs in categories designated as 2 Player (even if performed by a single runner using feet/two controllers), Tool-Assisted (TAS), or other distinct categories do not qualify.

    • The speedrun must be officially verified and approved by the Super Mario Odyssey moderation team on speedrun.com. A grace period of one week (until January 7, 2029) will be allowed for any runs completed before the December 31, 2028 deadline to be verified and published to the leaderboard.

    • Runs performed on Nintendo Switch, Nintendo Switch 2, or any other official hardware or emulator approved by the leaderboard rules at the time of the run are eligible.

Background

  • Super Mario Odyssey Any% speedrunning has seen massive optimization since the game's 2017 release.

  • In January 2025, runner Tyron18 achieved a world record time of 55:59.933 on original Nintendo Switch hardware.

  • Following the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 in mid-2025, significantly faster loading times shaved roughly 50 seconds off the game's runtime. Utilizing this hardware, Tyron18 lowered the Any% record further, achieving a time of 55:16 in July 2025.

  • Breaking the sub-55 minute barrier in the 1 Player category requires runners to shave an additional 17+ seconds off the current records.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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