Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if incumbent U.S. Senator Ed Markey receives 60.0% or more of the vote in the Massachusetts Democratic U.S. Senate primary held on September 1, 2026.

• This market will resolve to NO if he receives less than 60.0% of the vote.

• The primary source of truth will be the certified election results published by the Elections Division of the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

• If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve using the final unofficial election night tallies (with 100% of precincts reporting) reported by the Associated Press or The Boston Globe.

• The vote share percentage will be calculated as the number of votes cast for Ed Markey divided by the total number of votes cast for all candidates in the Democratic Senate primary. Write-in votes will be included in the total if they are officially reported in the primary total.

• If the Democratic primary is canceled, postponed, or if Ed Markey does not appear on the ballot, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

On September 1, 2026, Massachusetts voters cast their ballots in the state primaries. In the marquee statewide race, 80-year-old incumbent Senator Ed Markey faces a primary challenge from 47-year-old Representative Seth Moulton. Moulton has framed his campaign around a call for "a new generation of leadership," while Markey has leaned into his strong progressive credentials and support from figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

This primary serves as another test of Markey’s electoral resilience. In 2020, Markey successfully defended his seat against a primary challenge from Representative Joe Kennedy III, winning 55.4% of the vote. This market asks whether Markey can clear a higher threshold and secure at least 60% of the vote against Moulton.

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