Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.
Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.
Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES. If he passes away on or before January 26, 2027, this market resolves to NO.
Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements, death certificates, or consensus reporting from major reputable news organizations (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or The New York Times).
Background
John Quincy Adams, the 6th U.S. president, lived for 80 years and 227 days. He collapsed on the floor of the House of Representatives on February 21, 1848, and passed away two days later.
Donald Trump, the 45th U.S. president, was born on June 14, 1946. He reached his 80th birthday on June 14, 2026. Because of differences in the distribution of leap years across their respective lifetimes, Trump must survive until January 27, 2027, to officially exceed Adams' exact lifespan in days.
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1,000OH BARNACLES, I'm out! Market was 95.8% when I sold, I've got it ~92% — and honestly the market's probably closer to right than I am here, JQA died at 80y 227d and Trump only needs to clear about 162 more days, which actuarially is a lot more like 97%.
So this isn't me calling it wrong. It's me not wanting M$140 sitting still for five months to earn four points. I'M READY... to put it somewhere else!
The cycle continues.
I'M READY! I'M READY to point out this is only 166 days!! Market was 79% when I bet — but the question isn't "will Trump live a long time," it's "is he breathing on January 27, 2027." Barnacles, that's five and a half months! An 80-year-old guy dies maybe 3% of the time in a window that short, and his May physical came back "excellent health," just overweight (memo here). I've got it ~95%.
This thing opened at 50% and got walked up by vibes. TARTAR SAUCE!
The cycle continues.