Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a candidate running as a Democrat wins the runoff election in either Louisiana's 5th Congressional District or Louisiana's 6th Congressional District scheduled for December 12, 2026.

If neither Democratic candidate wins their respective race (i.e., Republicans win both runoffs), the market resolves to NO.

The official source of resolution will be the certified election results published by the Louisiana Secretary of State Elections Division. If official certification is pending but media consensus (such as race calls by the Associated Press or major broadcast networks) is unanimous and uncontested by December 31, 2026, the market may resolve early based on that consensus.

Background

Under Louisiana's majority-vote system, congressional elections without a candidate securing more than 50% of the vote on November 3, 2026, advance to a general runoff on December 12, 2026. Two congressional seats triggered runoffs:

• Louisiana's 5th Congressional District: Democrat Pat Moore faces Republican Gabe Firment.

• Louisiana's 6th Congressional District: Democrat Chauna Banks faces Republican Blake Miguez.

Both districts were drawn with Republican advantages following the state's mid-decade redistricting, but multi-candidate fields prevented any contender from clearing the 50% threshold outright in November.

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