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MANIFOLD
Will all nine "generally agreed" dwarf planets turn out to indeed be gravitationally rounded?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ200
2050
50%
chance

Context:

Astronomers are in general agreement that at least the nine largest candidates are dwarf planets – in rough order of decreasing diameter, Pluto, Eris, Haumea, Makemake, Gonggong, Quaoar, Sedna, Ceres, and Orcus.

[…]

Of these […], two have been visited by spacecraft (Pluto and Ceres)

[…]

The hydrostatic equilibrium criterion of a dwarf planet currently cannot be confirmed unless a spacecraft directly visits the object.

Dwarf planet - Wikipedia

Examples of edge case astronomical bodies that I would count as gravitationally rounded include Ceres and Mimas, and examples that I wouldn't count include Vesta and Proteus

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