If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
2
Ṁ275Ṁ39resolved Mar 20
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
0.0 - 1.0
6%
1.0 - 2.0
9%
2.0 - 3.0
19%
3.0 - 4.0
23%
4.0 - 5.0
11%
5.0 - 6.0
6%
6.0 - 7.0
6%
7.0 - 8.0
6%
8.0 - 9.0
6%
9.0 - 10.0
Resolves at the sum of the Democracy Index of the countries that occupy the territory that Ukraine occupied before the Russian invasion in 2022 (excluding Crimea), weighted by the population living in that territory, or N/A if there is no ceasefire in 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.44
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2.77
Ukraine democracy index 2028
5.1
Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
14% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
96% chance
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
29% chance
End of Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2026?
20% chance
Will Ukraine be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?
53% chance
Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of 2028?
POLL