If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
2
275Ṁ392029
4.67 points
expected1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
0.0 - 1.0
6%
1.0 - 2.0
9%
2.0 - 3.0
19%
3.0 - 4.0
23%
4.0 - 5.0
11%
5.0 - 6.0
6%
6.0 - 7.0
6%
7.0 - 8.0
6%
8.0 - 9.0
6%
9.0 - 10.0
Resolves at the sum of the Democracy Index of the countries that occupy the territory that Ukraine occupied before the Russian invasion in 2022 (excluding Crimea), weighted by the population living in that territory, or N/A if there is no ceasefire in 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.44
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2.69
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2.77
Ukraine democracy index 2028
5.1
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
92% chance
If Ukraine holds an election in 2025, who will win?
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2025?
37% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
63% chance
By 2025 Jun, we will think "Ukraine is still taking significant ground, or has won" [Resolves to Poll]
14% chance
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
47% chance