Resolves N/A if AI going into the Future is built on deep learning, or a son-of-deep-learning that is not at all under human control, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI. Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
An okay outcome:
An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
A new paradigm is any paradigm that is not deep learning. This includes currently known paradigms; being powerful enough to cause an okay outcome is a novel
"Superintelligent" means that it is able to do things at least as well as humanity as a whole. "Superhuman" means that it works as a replacement for any cognitive human task. "Below- or par- human" means there are some cognitive tasks that it can't do that humans can do.
"Stall out" means a capabilities slowdown at that level of intelligence that is at least long enough that the resulting slowdown is critical to a okay future. If there is no such stalling, then this resolves at the highest level of capabilities that is actually achieved - e.g. if we go smoothly to an ASI god building dyson spheres, this resolves at "superintelligent".
Some scenarios:
Deep learning hits a wall. There is another AI winter long enough for a new paradigm to be developed; this one is more alignable. Resolves at the wall that deep learning hit.
A new, more alignable paradigm is developed, which stalls out at or slightly above human levels. We work together with these near-superhuman AI and have a significant hand in the successor. Resolves at the level the AI under the new paradigm stalled out.
There is a global ban on ASI research. After decades, a new, more alignable paradigm is developed, which scales up to superintelligence. Resolves at "superintelligent" (capabilities did not stall out as a matter of computer science, humans decided to stop researching).
1,000