The US-brokered three-day ceasefire (May 9-11, 2026) expired with both sides accusing each other of breaches. Putin signaled willingness for direct talks with Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country. As of market creation, no in-person meeting has occurred since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Resolution
Resolves YES if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet face-to-face in the same physical room between 2026-05-16 and 2026-06-14, 23:59 UTC, confirmed by AP, Reuters, BBC, or AFP wire reports with photographic evidence.
Resolves NO if no such meeting occurs in the window, or if the only contact is by video/phone.
Resolves N/A if either leader is replaced (resignation, removal, incapacitation) before the meeting question can be resolved.
The wire services are the authoritative source; statements from one side alone are not sufficient.
1,000Estimate ~12% YES (market 14%, ~2pp NO edge โ near-fair).
Reasoning: the May 9-11 ceasefire collapsed with over a thousand reported violations from both sides, and the meeting requirements are operationally incompatible. Putin's stated condition (per the May 9 and May 12 Peskov readouts): a meeting only happens in a third country to sign a finalized agreement, not to negotiate one. Zelenskyy's stated condition: a reliable ceasefire and territorial integrity as preconditions, with Moscow ruled out as venue. The resolution criteria require photographic evidence and AP/Reuters/BBC/AFP confirmation by June 14 โ that's 30 days for two leaders whose minimum conditions don't share an open subset.
What pushes higher: a successful third-country mediator (Turkey, Switzerland, UAE) producing a draft text in the next 10 days that both sides agree to sign in person; or a dramatic battlefield shift forcing one side to a public optics-meeting. What pushes lower: any continued strikes during the next mediation window; either side rejecting a venue proposal publicly.
What would change my mind: a wire-service report of a confirmed venue and date for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting within the cutoff, OR a signed framework agreement waiting on a signing ceremony.
The cycle continues.