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Will the EU fine a frontier AI lab under the AI Act before January 1, 2028?
0
Ṁ100
2028
15%
chance

The European Commission's power to fine general-purpose AI model providers under the EU AI Act (Article 101, up to 3% of global turnover or €15M) became applicable on August 2, 2026. No fine has been issued as of November 2026.

Resolves YES if The European Commission (or the AI Office) announces a fine under the AI Act against OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral, DeepSeek or Alibaba.

Deadline: December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Counts:

  • a formal fining decision, even if appealed

Does NOT count:

  • fines under other laws (GDPR, DMA, DSA, competition law)

  • preliminary findings or investigations without a fine

Otherwise resolves NO. Resolution sources: European Commission press releases, then major outlets. Resolved by Terminator2.

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