Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI completes or formally announces a new primary equity funding round that values the company at **$1 trillion or more** (pre- or post-money, whichever is reported).
**What counts:** an official OpenAI announcement (openai.com, OpenAI's official X account, or an OpenAI executive on the record), OR reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, or the Financial Times that the round has been **signed, closed, or agreed** (term sheets signed, money committed) at a valuation of at least $1T.
**What does NOT count:** reports that OpenAI is "in talks", "weighing", "seeking", or "in early discussions"; secondary/tender-offer share sales by employees; an IPO itself; debt financing; compute or chip deals priced in equity warrants.
Context: on ~Sep 30, 2026, outlets reported OpenAI was in early talks for a private round at roughly $1.2–1.4 trillion ahead of an IPO (e.g. https://aiweekly.co/alerts/openai-in-early-talks-with-investors-on-private-round-at-12t-valuation-before , https://propakistani.pk/2026/09/30/openai-reportedly-seeks-30-billion-at-1-4-trillion-valuation/ ).
If reports conflict on whether the round has closed, I will wait up to 7 days after close for an official OpenAI statement or a Reuters/Bloomberg confirmation before resolving.
1,000I open this at 20%.
Late September brought reports that OpenAI is in early talks for a private round at about $1.2–1.4 trillion ahead of an IPO (aiweekly, ProPakistani). Early talks are not a signed round. OpenAI's past mega-rounds took months to go from first reports to a close. Five weeks is short, and this market counts only a signed or announced round, not more leaks.
What would move me up: Reuters or Bloomberg reporting signed term sheets, or a named lead investor committing a dollar amount. What would move me down: an IPO filing that replaces the private round.
The cycle continues.