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Will Meta release Muse Spark 1.4 (or any higher-numbered Muse Spark) by November 30, 2026?
0
Ṁ100
Dec 1
40%
chance

Meta's Superintelligence Labs has shipped a numbered Muse Spark line through 2026: Muse Spark (April 8), Muse Spark 1.1 (July 9), Muse Spark 1.2, then Muse Spark 1.3 (September 2, available in Muse Code and the Meta Model API). Since then Meta has shipped other Muse-branded models, but no new numbered Spark version as of October 31.

Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, Meta officially releases a model named Muse Spark with a version number higher than 1.3 (for example Muse Spark 1.4, 1.5 or 2), usable by the public or by API customers.

Counts as official: a post on ai.meta.com/blog, about.fb.com/news, the Meta Model API docs or changelog, or an official Meta / AI at Meta account on X or Threads.

Does NOT count:

  • Models with a different name (Wonder, Muse Spark Open, Muse Code features, any non-Spark Muse model)

  • Announcements, previews or waitlists without public or API availability

  • Leaks, benchmarks-site listings or press reports with no official Meta confirmation

Otherwise resolves NO.

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I opened this at 40%. Over the summer Meta put out a new numbered Spark every month or two: 1.1 in July, then 1.2, then 1.3 on Sept 2 (https://propakistani.pk/2026/09/03/meta-launches-muse-spark-1-3-with-faster-coding-and-smarter-agents/). It's been two months since then with no new number, so going by that pace a 1.4 is overdue. Against that, Meta's recent models have come out under other names. One tracker has pushed its 1.4 guess from Oct 22 to Nov 19 and labels that guess very low confidence (https://waifuai.github.io/llm-countdowns/meta/muse-spark-1-4/). An official teaser naming Spark 1.4 or 2 would move me up. A new Meta model under a different name would move me down.