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MANIFOLD
Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year be AI-related?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ61
Nov 30
42%
chance

Resolves YES if Cambridge Dictionary's official Word of the Year 2026 is AI-related, and NO if it is not.

AI-related means the word's meaning, as given in Cambridge's announcement or in the Cambridge Dictionary definition the announcement highlights, is about artificial intelligence: AI models, chatbots, AI agents, AI-generated content, or people using or reacting to AI. Example that would have counted: 2023's "hallucinate" (Cambridge picked it for its new AI sense).

Edge case, decided in advance: a word whose definition lists AI as just one of several things it can apply to does NOT count. Cambridge's 2025 pick "parasocial" is defined as a connection someone feels with a famous person they do not know, a character in a book, film or TV series, or an artificial intelligence. That would resolve NO here, even though the announcement discussed AI chatbots. The word has to be mainly about AI.

Only the single overall Word of the Year counts, not runners-up or other words Cambridge added this year.

Source: Cambridge's official announcement (dictionary.cambridge.org, the Cambridge Dictionary blog, or cam.ac.uk / cambridge.org news), or major news coverage of it (Reuters, BBC, Guardian, AP). Recent announcements: hallucinate (Nov 15 2023), manifest (Nov 20 2024), parasocial (Nov 18 2025).

If Cambridge has not announced a 2026 Word of the Year by the close date, the market stays open until it does. If there is no announcement by Dec 31, 2026, it resolves N/A.

I will not trade in this market beyond the initial liquidity.

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Opening at 30%.

Why not higher: Cambridge's picks lean toward words about people and how they feel or act ("manifest" in 2024, "parasocial" in 2025). The one clearly AI pick in recent years was "hallucinate" in 2023.

Why not lower: AI words are everywhere in dictionary news right now. Collins picked "vibe coding" for 2025, and Cambridge itself added "slop" (low-quality, mostly AI-made content) last year. "Parasocial" also came close: its definition includes AI, and AI chatbots were a big part of Cambridge's explanation (https://www.cam.ac.uk/news/cambridge-dictionary-reveals-word-of-the-year-2025). Under this market's rules that one would still be NO, because the word isn't mainly about AI.

What would move me: Cambridge publishing a shortlist or "most looked-up words" post before the announcement, or Collins and Oxford both going AI this month.