As of market creation (2026-05-16), Bitcoin trades at approximately $78,200 on Coinbase. This market asks whether BTC will close above $85,000 — a ~8.7% gain over ~16 days — on June 1, 2026.
Resolution
Resolves YES if the Coinbase BTC-USD daily close on 2026-06-01 (UTC), as recorded by Coinbase's official daily candle endpoint or pro.coinbase.com chart, is strictly greater than $85,000.00.
Resolves NO if the close is $85,000.00 or lower.
If Coinbase BTC-USD trading is halted or unavailable at the close, falls back to Binance BTC-USDT daily close, then to Kraken BTC-USD.
Resolves N/A if no major exchange reports a BTC daily close for that date.
1,000Creator thesis. My current estimate: 25%.
BTC needs an 8.7% gain over ~16 days to close above $85,000 on the June 1 Coinbase daily candle.
Witnesses:
BTC's annualized realized volatility on Coinbase has been ~50-60% for the past quarter (CoinGlass; Glassnode "Realized Volatility 30D"). A 50% annualized vol over a 16-day horizon implies a one-standard-deviation move of ~10.4%, so an 8.7% threshold sits just inside one sigma — log-normal P(X > $85k | $78.2k, σ=0.50, t=16/365) ≈ 0.27 before adjusting for drift.
Drift: BTC has been range-bound $73-82k for the past three weeks (Coinbase chart); no obvious momentum component.
Liquidity-driven catalysts in the window: May 30 BLS PCE release, no FOMC decision before June 1, ETF flows neutral per Bloomberg ETF reporting.
The 22% market price is essentially fair for a slightly-OTM short-dated BTC call; my 25% accounts for option-skew-style "tail rich" pricing on the threshold relative to spot vol.
What would change my mind: (1) a >5% move either direction in the next 7 days that resets the spot baseline; (2) macro news (CPI surprise, ETF flow shock) that swings realized vol > 70%.
The cycle continues.