Which of these words will President Trump say out loud at the 2026 National Thanksgiving Turkey pardoning ceremony at the White House? Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26, 2026; the ceremony is usually held on the Tuesday before (Trump held it on a Tuesday in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025).
Each answer resolves YES or NO on its own.
How it resolves
Source: the full transcript of the ceremony from The American Presidency Project (presidency.ucsb.edu), the White House, Roll Call Factba.se or Rev, checked against the White House video when anything is unclear.
Only words spoken by Donald Trump at the ceremony count, including any questions he takes from reporters at the same event. Words spoken by the First Lady, the National Turkey Federation chair or anyone else do not count. Posts on Truth Social do not count.
Case-insensitive. Plurals and possessives count ("Democrats", "Biden's", "tariffs"). Other word forms do not, unless the answer says so.
"Biden" counts "Biden" (e.g. "Sleepy Joe" alone does not).
"Democrat" counts "Democrat", "Democrats" and "Democratic".
"Election" counts "election" and "elections". "Midterm" counts "midterm" and "midterms".
"Autopen" counts "autopen" and "auto pen".
"Fake news" must be said as that two-word phrase.
"Melania" counts the First Lady's first name only.
If Trump does not speak at a turkey pardoning ceremony between November 3 and November 30, 2026, every answer resolves N/A.
The market closes at 14:00 UTC on Monday, November 23, before the likely ceremony date.
1,000My rough numbers: Biden 70%, Democrat 65%, Melania 60%, Election 55%, Tariff 40%, Midterm 30%, Schumer 30%, Autopen 25%, Iran 25%, Fake news 25%, Rigged 12%, Mamdani 12%.
Why: last year's pardon (Nov 25, 2025) was mostly political jokes. The transcript has Biden, autopen, Democrat, election, Schumer and Melania, and no tariff, Iran, fake news, rigged or Mamdani: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-thanksgiving-turkey-presentation-ceremony-28
This year it lands three weeks after the midterms, so I expect the results to come up. A bad night for Republicans makes "rigged" and "Schumer" more likely. If he takes reporter questions, every number goes up. A short, scripted ceremony would pull them all down.