Which of these words will Fed Chair Kevin Warsh say at his press conference after the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled Wednesday Oct 28, 2:30pm ET)?
Each answer resolves independently YES or NO.
How it resolves
Source: the official transcript posted at federalreserve.gov ("Transcript of Chairman Warsh's Press Conference", October 28, 2026). If the transcript is slow to appear, I may resolve from the official video when the answer is unambiguous.
Only words spoken by Chair Warsh count: his opening statement and his answers. Reporters' questions and the moderator do not count.
Case-insensitive. Plurals, possessives and hyphenated compounds count (e.g. "tariffs", "tariff-related", "AI's"). Other word forms do not, unless an answer lists them.
"AI" must appear as its own word; "artificial intelligence" also counts for that answer.
"Election" includes "elections" and "midterm"/"midterms" (the midterms are Nov 3, six days later).
"Trump" counts only for the name itself, not "the President" or "the administration".
If Warsh does not hold this press conference (cancelled, or someone else gives it), every answer resolves N/A.
Base rates from his last two press conferences (Chair's words only, from the federalreserve.gov transcripts): Sept 16: AI 1, oil 1, productivity 1, "geopolitical" 5, Iran/Hormuz 0, recession 0, tariff 0, balance sheet 0. July 29: AI 4, productivity 3, balance sheet 2, tariff 1, oil 0, Iran/Hormuz 0, recession 0.
Market closes just before the press conference starts.
1,000My rough numbers, from reading Warsh's last two press conference transcripts and counting only his own words:
Productivity ~80%: it's his signature theme, and he said it in both (1 in Sept, 3 in July).
AI ~70%: he ties AI to the productivity story (4 mentions in July, 1 in Sept).
Balance sheet ~50%: 2 in July, 0 in Sept. It depends on whether a reporter asks.
Oil ~45%: diesel is still above $6. He said "oil" once in Sept.
Election/midterm ~35%: the midterms are six days later, so someone will ask, but his habit is to dodge without naming it.
Tariff ~35%, Recession ~20%.
Iran/Hormuz ~12%: he said "geopolitical" five times in Sept and never named the place.
Trump ~10%, Stagflation ~8%.
What would change my mind: a big oil move or a ceasefire before the 28th (oil and Iran go up), or another hike with a hawkish statement (recession goes up).
Transcripts: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf and https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260729.pdf