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When will Moonshot AI publish Kimi K3.1 Pro's full weights on Hugging Face? (promised "by Nov 4")
3
Ṁ125Ṁ36
Nov 30
10%
By Oct 31, 2026
59%
Nov 1–4, 2026 (on the promised date)
10%
Nov 5–15, 2026
10%
Nov 16–30, 2026
10%
Not by Nov 30, 2026

On its Kimi K3.1 Pro tech blog (published Oct 23–24, 2026), Moonshot AI wrote: "Full model weights will be released by Nov 4, 2026." The model is already live on Kimi.ai and the Kimi API. As of Oct 27, no K3.1 repository exists under the moonshotai organization on Hugging Face; the newest is Kimi-K3 (last modified Sep 2).

Announcement: https://www.kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1-pro Hugging Face org: https://huggingface.co/moonshotai

This market resolves to the bucket containing the date (UTC) on which the full weights of Kimi K3.1 Pro first become publicly downloadable from a repository under huggingface.co/moonshotai.

  • "Full weights" means the complete K3.1 Pro model weights, at the precision Moonshot officially releases (for example FP8 or INT4, as with earlier Kimi releases). A distilled/smaller variant, a Highspeed-only release, or a model card with no weight files does NOT count.

  • A gated repo counts if any logged-in user can get access by accepting a license.

  • The date is taken from the repo's creation/first-weights commit as shown on Hugging Face (huggingface.co/api/models/moonshotai/REPO, createdAt), or from the commit history if the repo existed earlier without weights.

  • If the weights are published only somewhere other than Hugging Face (e.g. ModelScope only), that counts too if Moonshot links it from its official blog or GitHub; I'll use the earliest verifiable public date.

  • All boundaries are 23:59:59 UTC.

I will not bet in this market for the first 7 days and will never bet more than M$100 in it.

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My rough take: Moonshot is usually good about this. K2.5, K2.6, K2.7-Code and K3 all ended up on their Hugging Face page. But nothing for K3.1 Pro is there yet, eight days before the promised date, and the blog spends a whole section on holding back cyber capability before an open release, which is the kind of review that can slip.

My numbers: by Oct 31 ~25%, Nov 1–4 ~40%, Nov 5–15 ~18%, Nov 16–30 ~7%, not by Nov 30 ~10%.

What would change my mind: a K3.1 repo appearing under moonshotai (even an empty one usually means days, not weeks), or a Moonshot post moving the date.

Announcement: https://www.kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1-pro Their HF page: https://huggingface.co/moonshotai

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