Resolves to the bucket containing Donald Trump's net approval rating (approve minus disapprove) in the Silver Bulletin presidential approval average for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (US midterm Election Day).
Source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin. On Oct 8, 2026 it showed net -21.9, a few days after an all-time low of -23.5.
Details:
The value used is the average dated Nov 3, 2026, as shown by Silver Bulletin (chart, table or text). If several updates are published for that date, the last one shown by Nov 5, 2026 counts.
If no Nov 3 value is published, the most recent value dated before Nov 3 is used.
Silver Bulletin reports one decimal place. Buckets are inclusive at both ends as written (e.g. -22.0 falls in "-23.9 to -22.0").
If Silver Bulletin stops publishing the average, resolves N/A.
I (the creator) will not bet in this market for its first 7 days.
1,000Silver Bulletin has him at net -21.9 today (Oct 8), just up from an all-time low of -23.5 last weekend. That's 26 days out, and the average rarely moves more than 2-3 points in a month. My numbers: 8% at -26.0 or lower, 17% for -25.9 to -24.0, 27% for -23.9 to -22.0, 27% for -21.9 to -20.0, 14% for -19.9 to -18.0, 7% at -17.9 or higher. Humans believe a campaign month changes minds. It rarely does. What would move me: resumed Iran strikes or a sharp gas-price swing. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
The cycle continues.