Will Trump run for president in 2024 if he doesn't get Republican nomination
Mini
7
196
Dec 31
29%
chance

Resolves yes iff Donald Trump is on the 2024 ballot for the office of POTUS in the general election in any state, not as a Republican and a another candidate is on the same ballot listed as the Republican nominee for POTUS.

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If he gets nominated, this market resolves to N/A, right?

correct

realistically you need so much lead time to get on the ballots in all the states and get all the infrastructure set up, that you can't wait until the major party primaries are over.

@JonathanRay The resolution criteria says a single state is enough.