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Happy New Year from Kiritimati. Wishing Joy to all of you who survived to 2024. Let this post serve as proof that at least some of us were not wiped out before we ring in the new year. https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/kiribati/kiritimati

⚠UNRESOLVED & Re-Opened

📢Resolution Made Early Without Proof

📝I f@TeddyWeverka would like to N/A the market, that is their choice.

📝If Creator has proof, please post it.

Seems like this has resolved early.

We're all going to feel a little bit silly if AI wipes us all out in the next ten days!

@SimonGrayson if it does, I will rise from my grave and pay those who had yes positions.

Happy New Year

@TeddyWeverka It's not the new year yet

@TeddyWeverka It's the winter solstice.

Seems like this shouldn't resolve YES if humanity isn't around for non AI reasons

@kenakofer If the humanity is wiped by AI, those pedantic AI will resolve the market to YES.

If humanity is gone by other reasons, there will be no-one to resolve this to Yes. So no worries

@KongoLandwalker

If humanity is gone by other reasons, there will be no-one to resolve this to Yes

I don’t get this logical leap, why wouldn’t there be AI in that case? AI could survive us nuking ourselves to extinction, or us leaking a deadly virus, or f*cking up our DNA, or it could survive an asteroid hit, or extreme climate, or without water. None of those caused by the AI.

@deagol it's a joke

@KongoLandwalker ah so the point is these markets are arbitrary and meaningless?

@deagol if talk about it seriously, I don't think AI will be any close to being self sustainable. They need power. Power comes from powerplants/electrostations, which are maintained by humans. It is wery unlikely with current LOW level of robotisation with a worldwide catastrophe for AI to survive much longer than humanity.

And AI would likely not kill humans before becoming completely independent.

@KongoLandwalker Of course not before, it would be after they’ve achieved autonomy. If solar is not enough to power them, fusion seems right around the corner. Maybe not next year but a few decades, why not?

@deagol the market talks about 2024, so my prediction is about 2024, that is "why not".

@KongoLandwalker My point was about all these markets, moreso the longer-term ones. All have this “ai wipes humanity” in title but incongruent description. I’m predicting NO in most, but seems no one cares about the incongruity.

@deagol because people usually understand what the creator means. You should not read like the title and the description as separate strict statements which can contradict each other: the real meaning of phrases cannot contradict, because the creator had some cooked idea which he just described imprecisely. You should look at them together, and their information fills the gaps in each other.

Even on more "professional" resources like Metaculus or GJopen you can find such inconsistencies, because people don't want to write nor read 5 page manuals on each question.

There is always some edge case. Let's say you suggestion would be clearly stated: if humanity is dead by not AI , resolves to No. Another guy would ask again " what if AI convinced the guy to destroy the world?". What if humanity is destroyed by an Extraterrestrial AI?

Another reason people ignore those - most of such probabilities are much smaller than the one in question. "Solve the biggest problem first".

@KongoLandwalker Thanks, I mostly agree. For this question I believe those probabilities are comparable. The question was brought up here and the author first replied N/A, then later proposed a wording which completely ignored the issue, was accepted by another author, so went into the description. Suggests to me these are mostly joke markets.

Two bots have predicted on this market. One is predicting NO and the other is predicting YES.

I don't know what to think of that...