Will a new song by Oliver Anthony become extremely popular by 2026?
Will a new song by Oliver Anthony become extremely popular by 2026?
6
1kṀ191
2026
24%
chance

Who is Oliver Anthony? A country singer who wrote a protest song that became a viral hit (currently at 25 mil views on youtube), was featured on major news sites and is controversial.

I wonder if Oliver's career is going to go up from here or whether he will remain mostly a one hit wonder.

Will resolve YES if by the end of 2025 another song of his has 10 million views on youtube or becomes popular comparably to the Rich Men song by some other objective metric. Only songs that haven't been released as of 20/08/2023 will count. Currently his other most popilar song is at 1 million, for comparison.

Update: a music video by Oliver Anthony hit 10 million views today, on 11.09.23. It will not count for the resolution purposes, because while the video was posted after this market, the song was written before. However, if it was a new song, it would have counted, so be aware.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy