Will global average temperatures in 2100 increase by at least 2.7°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900? | Manifold

Will global average temperatures in 2100 increase by at least 2.7°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900?

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resolved Mar 14

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The 2021-2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 study estimated 4.4°C (SSP5-8.5) as highly unlikely, 3.6°C (SSP3-7.0) as unlikely, and 2.7°C (SSP2-4.5) as likely. Mar 13, 1:00am: Relevant studies are here: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04423-8 Mar 13, 1:00am: I am also unsure about how to resolve this market as well since it is so far out into the future and the payouts may not be very high. I was originally thinking of just resolving it when the global average temperature is recorded by various weather agencies at the end of the resolution year as either yes or no but I am open to any suggestions that could make this market more reasonable. Mar 14, 12:38am: Resolving as N/A and will try to recreate a new market based on free response RCP scenarios.

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This here is a silly market. Adjusting for inflation, the resolution payout vanishes. Consider amending the description that you'll resolve at the subjective probability you'll attach after, say, a week's evidence comes in.

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