Is the simulation hypothesis true?
35%
chance

Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation. If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate. I will not trade in this market. I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter. If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.

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IsaacKing avatar

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IsaacKing avatar

So this can't resolve no?

TassiloNeubauer avatar

@IsaacKing Good question. I was thinking something like, either I make the Resolution criterion, what I will believe will be the probability 40 years from now, if I am still alive (otherwise I'd delegate this to descendants/friends/family members). I could also say I want a commitee (I might steel some Inspiration from Metaculus there) 500 years from now, but that seems kinda bold, handing off the work to the future like this. Is there like a fund I can pay to resolve markets like this 🤔 ?

TassiloNeubauer avatar

@TassiloNeubauer Might explain the high probability

TassiloNeubauer avatar

@TassiloNeubauer Updated the Resolution criteria. Anyone who feels cheated by this change may comment on this comment and I'll compensate you with 10$M if you actually traded on this.

ManifoldDream avatar

Is the simulation hypothesis true?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition