This market uses the exact same definition as my related market "Both teams happy with a draw?".
https://manifold.markets/Tantalost/both-teams-happy-with-a-draw?r=VGFudGFsb3N0
It resolves to the first group containing such a match.
Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters. The actual match result is irrelevant.
If no group satisfies the criteria during the group-stage, the market resolves to "It does not happen".
For reference, the scheduled order of the final group-stage matches is currently:
B → C → A → E → F → D → I → H → G → L → K → J
This order is provided for convenience only. If FIFA changes the schedule, the actual match schedule will take precedence.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ170 | |
| 2 | Ṁ110 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
If Canada beat Qatar, I will resolve this market to YES immediately.
Canada and Switzerland would both be on 4 points and meet on the final matchday, while Bosnia and Qatar would both have 1 point.
A draw would guarantee qualification for both teams as one of the top two. A defeat, however, would still carry risk, as a potential 4-point third is not mathematically safe yet (see chart). After two matchdays, at most three groups can still end up in the 6/6/0/0 or 2/2/2/2 configurations (as per today G, H and I).
As Group B is the first group to play on the final matchday, no later group can beat it to this scenario.
First contender might be Group B.
Both opening matches ended 1-1, and Group B is the first group to play its final matchday.
If two teams win their second match and then face each other on the final matchday, a draw would guarantee qualification for both teams as one of the top two teams in the group, while a loss would likely leave the loser still dependent on the ranking of the third-placed teams.