Resolves YES if, before kick-off of a final group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, any draw would guarantee qualification for both teams, while a loss would not guarantee qualification for either team.
Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters. The actual match result is irrelevant.
The two teams must be able to secure qualification entirely through their own result. The outcome of any parallel or other matches must be irrelevant for both teams.
The qualification scenario must already be known before kick-off. Situations that only become true live during the match do not count.
Qualification may be through a top-two group finish or through the ranking of third-placed teams, provided qualification can already be mathematically guaranteed before kick-off under the official FIFA rules and tie-breakers.
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If Canada beat Qatar, I will resolve this market to YES immediately.
Canada and Switzerland would both be on 4 points and meet on the final matchday, while Bosnia and Qatar would both have 1 point.
A draw would guarantee qualification for both teams as one of the top two. A defeat, however, would still carry risk, as a potential 4-point third is not mathematically safe yet (see chart). After two matchdays, at most three groups can still end up in the 6/6/0/0 or 2/2/2/2 configurations (as per today G, H and I).
As Group B is the first group to play on the final matchday, no later group can beat it to this scenario.
/Tantalost/which-group-will-be-the-first-where
The expanded 48-team format creates some fascinating qualification scenarios.
Will this happen early, or only later once the third-placed ranking becomes clearer?