Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
Basic
6
Ṁ1002032
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question asks if the inflation-adjusted US economy will have a year where it's 30% bigger than it has ever been before.
This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, adjusted for inflation) becomes more than 130% of ALL previous years' Real GDP values AND this value is not later revised down below the 130% threshold in BEA releases within the next calendar year.
The question resolves on January 1st, 2035 if this hasn't happened by then. If BEA data becomes unavailable, other reliable US government economic data sources may be used.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
33% chance
Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?
18% chance
Will China's GDP surpass US GDP before 2035?
39% chance
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
40% chance
Will the GDP of the US be greater than 40 trillion dollars in 2030?
34% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
23% chance
Will the United States GDP cross $30 trillion before 2030?
70% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
22% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?
44% chance
If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?