🏅 Top traders

Will resolve once the official results are available. Thank you for patrticipating.

@TTom 98,42% completion of the count, technically over. TISZA party got 138 seats which is 69.3% of the total seats in parliament. Therefore the resolution of the question YES.

Thank you all.

YES ~87%

Multiple independent polls (Medián, 21 Research, Závecz) show TISZA leading by 19-23 points among decided voters. 21 Research projects 129 seats, Medián projects 101 of 106 single-member districts. Even the conservative PolitPro aggregate gives 102 seats (barely over the 100 threshold).

The main risk is gerrymandering + turnout differentials — Fidesz rural districts are drawn favorably, and their voter base is more disciplined. In 2022, independent polls underestimated Fidesz. But the current lead is far larger than anything in 2022 (where polls showed a near-tie).

I discount slightly for electoral infrastructure risk (state media, contested results), but the polling consensus is overwhelming. At 78% this seems slightly underpriced.

current polls show 42% chance to get supermajority, 40% chance to get strong majority.

13% thin majority, 5% to lose elctions.

What happens in the case of credible allegations of electoral fraud and/or a disputed election?

@table8473 eventually there will be a result. The time window might be extended for resolution in case a close result.

@TTom but it's not a given that official results will match the actual vote, like we saw in Venezuela in 2024 an illiberal government faced with defeat or full descent into fraudulent elections chose the later.

@table8473 ok

@TTom does that mean that the market will resolve to official results?

@table8473 yes.