Considering that:

a) data pollution (large scale injection of AI generated data into the information space) and subsequent model collapse have been identified [1] as potential threats [2] for future LLM's and
b) advanced AI models will impact the geopolitical power distribution [3] and therefore be increasingly subject to geostrategic contention [4],

Do you believe that by the end of 2025, there will be evidence of large scale organized data pollution operations by state or non-state actors with the implicit or explicit goal of denigrating the performance of future LLM's taking or having taken place?

Resolution:

This market will resolve as YES if at any point before 01/01/2026 credible information will emerge that a deliberate data pollution operation by any actor (state/non-state) for any reason (geopolitical contestation, ideology, terrorism, lulz) has taken place.

Caveat: the operation must be/have been significant enough to warrant mention by a reputable news source (e.g. the NYT, WSJ, WP, BBC etc.), a government communication, a peer-reviewed scientific publication, a reputable threat intelligence service provider and/or other reputable sources not covered in this list.

I reserve the right to final judgement.