Will Karl Lauterbach (german secretary of health) be out of office before the next federal election? | Manifold Markets

closes Sep 18

Germany Politics German Politics

Will Karl Lauterbach (german secretary of health) be out of office before the next federal election?

35%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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Will resolve NO, if Karl Lauterbach is still in office when the 2025 federal election is over.

Will resolve YES, if Karl Lauterbach is not in office anymore before the 2025 federal election.

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kottsiekis predicting NO at 37%

He had some Covid mishaps, but Covid will be out of the news soon. Legalising Cannabis will be his most talked about project, where he has both popular support and the support of all governing parties. All problems/delays with said project can be (justifiably or not) blamed on the EU, who will meddle with the law. If I am correct public opinion will increase.

PSis predicting YES at 39%

I think the consensus is that he's the most likely minister to leave, now that Lambrecht is gone. See e.g.https://www.merkur.de/politik/kanzler-scholz-spd-kummer-lambrecht-rauswurf-cdu-merz-soeder-faeser-ruecktritt-lauterbach-92009347.html or https://www.zdf.de/politik/berlin-direkt/scholz-kabinett-minister-lambrecht-lauterbach-100.html

kottsiekbought Ṁ10 of NO

Why is this so high?

@kottsiek maybe because of critical opinions against Lauterbach in Germany

Will Karl Lauterbach, german secretary of health from the social demokrats, be out of office?

enemelis predicting NO at 72%

There are no federal elections in Germany in 2026. Maybe change the year in the description to 2025.

@enemel my fault

Related:

https://manifold.markets/Svenbonne/will-christine-lambrecht-german-sec?referrer=Svenbonne

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled)

Jannik bought Ṁ40 NO from 39% to 34%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ50 YES from 30% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 29%

Kriggar bought Ṁ70 NO from 34% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Jannik bought Ṁ75 NO from 41% to 32%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 41% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ25 YES from 37% to 42%

Philipp bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled)

enemel bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 36%

PS filled limit order Ṁ56/Ṁ100 YES at 30%

enemel bought Ṁ100 NO from 45% to 43%

kottsiek bought Ṁ50 NO from 48% to 45%

PS filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 48% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ60 YES from 37% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 37% (cancelled)

kottsiek filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ14 NO at 36%

kottsiek bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 38%

PS created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled)

PS created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 41% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ25 YES from 36% to 42%

Louis Winter bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled)

kottsiek bought Ṁ20 NO from 40% to 36%

kottsiek bought Ṁ20 NO from 43% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ50 YES from 33% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 33% (cancelled)

Johnny Ten-Numbers sold Ṁ22 YES from 37% to 31%

kottsiek bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled)

PS bought Ṁ50 YES from 29% to 42%

Björn Jürgens bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%

kottsiek filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ21 NO at 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 33% (cancelled)

kottsiek bought Ṁ60 NO from 42% to 32%

PS bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 42%

kottsiek bought Ṁ30 NO from 46% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

kottsiek bought Ṁ22 NO from 50% to 45%

nebelkugel sold Ṁ25 NO at 50%

enemel filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ300 NO at 50% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 53% (cancelled)

Nick el Chen bought Ṁ65 YES from 44% to 54%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 44% (cancelled)