Will resolve NO, if Karl Lauterbach is still in office when the 2025 federal election is over.
Will resolve YES, if Karl Lauterbach is not in office anymore before the 2025 federal election.
He had some Covid mishaps, but Covid will be out of the news soon. Legalising Cannabis will be his most talked about project, where he has both popular support and the support of all governing parties. All problems/delays with said project can be (justifiably or not) blamed on the EU, who will meddle with the law. If I am correct public opinion will increase.
I think the consensus is that he's the most likely minister to leave, now that Lambrecht is gone. See e.g.https://www.merkur.de/politik/kanzler-scholz-spd-kummer-lambrecht-rauswurf-cdu-merz-soeder-faeser-ruecktritt-lauterbach-92009347.html or https://www.zdf.de/politik/berlin-direkt/scholz-kabinett-minister-lambrecht-lauterbach-100.html
Why is this so high?
There are no federal elections in Germany in 2026. Maybe change the year in the description to 2025.