MANIFOLD
In what quarter will the US Treasury inverted yield curve return to normal (uninverted)?
22
Ṁ1.8kṀ16k
resolved Sep 30
100%96%
3Q24
0.2%
3Q23
0.3%
4Q23
0.6%
1Q24
0.4%
2Q24
1.7%
4Q24
0.5%
Later

Criteria will be based on the last day of the quarter as reported by CNBC closing US Treasury rates for the last day of the quarter.

Will be using 2 year and 10 year treasury yields.

The quarter that ends with the 10 year yield higher than the 2 year yield will be the winner.

Only the end of the quarter will be used!

Market context
Economics
Interest Rates
Treasury
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/bond-market-yield-curve-returns-to-normal-from-inverted-state-that-had-raised-recession-fears.html?__source=androidappshare

But resolution is based on quarter end

As they close in on each other I will remind people this is based on the LAST day of the quarter!

Why is Q3 23 at 7%

10 year made a big move today...

Up 15 basis points while 2 year went up 2

5.514 to 4.49 (per seeking alpha)

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